China develops three weapons systems to "win without fighting"

A maritime arms race is under way in the South China Sea. China is already the dominant regional naval power and many of its new systems could one day threaten US naval dominance as well.

No wonder then that so many of its neighbours are worried who are engaged in long-running maritime disputes with Beijing.

According to Dr Andrew Erickson, a China expert at the US Naval War College: "China does not want to start a war, but rather seeks to wield its growing military might to 'win without fighting' by deterring actions that it views as detrimental to its core national interests."

Three weapons systems are emblematic of China's broadening strategic horizons. Those are DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile, aircraft carrier and J-20 fighter.

China's first aircraft carrier will begin sea trials later this year. Late last year, the first pictures were leaked of the prototype of Beijing's new "stealth" fighter. And US military experts believe that China has begun to deploy the world's first long-range ballistic missile capable of hitting a moving ship at sea.

Dr Erickson says China's capabilities thus far have been focused on developing a regional anti-access or area denial strategy to prevent Taiwan from declaring independence.

In part this strategy rests upon developing credible weapons systems to hold US carrier battle groups at risk should Washington elect to intervene.

China deploys a formidable array of missiles and other weapons that range far out from its own shores.

Of these, the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile is unique; a land-based system that could potentially target US carrier battle groups that have long been the corner-stone of Washington's maritime might.

American officials and the director-general of Taiwan's National Security Bureau say that China has already begun to deploy the DF-21D.

The DF-21D (known in the West as the CSS-5) is fired from a wheeled transporter vehicle and has a range in excess of 1,500km. It is armed with a manoeuvrable warhead that gives the Chinese military the ability to strike ships in the western Pacific Ocean.

It is easy to see why China would want such a missile. It is all about limiting the pre-eminent naval power in the region, the US, from intervening in any future crisis involving Taiwan.

Ever since the Pacific campaign of World War II, aircraft carriers have been the dominant means of projecting naval power.

China too is now entering the carrier race, albeit from a standing start. An old Soviet-era carrier - the Varyag - was purchased from Ukraine and has been extensively refitted.

China's first carrier will operate the new J-15 Flying Shark strike fighter, based on another Russian design, the Sukhoi SU-33 jet.

The carrier is reported to be due to begin sea trials in the summer. Once operational it would give the Chinese Navy a significant new capability in its continuing disputes with its maritime neighbours.

But Western experts note that this carrier will largely serve a training role. Carrier operations require significant expertise which can only be built up over time. The vessel is unlikely to deploy the wide range of aircraft available to the commander of a US Naval carrier air group.

Nonetheless, Dr Erickson says China will use the carrier to "project a bit of power, confer prestige on a rising great power, and master basic procedures".

Its maiden flight, last January, came only hours before a visit by the US Defence Secretary Robert Gates to Beijing, a coincidence which many analysts saw as a deliberate signal by China.

Douglas Barrie, from the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London, says China's J-20 cannot match the US equivalents.

But he added: "The aircraft does mark China's ambitions in terms of developing its air combat capability, and of its defence aerospace industrial base."

Mr Barrie argues that the introduction of significant numbers of J-20-based fighters would "pose an increased challenge to other regional powers, and to US forces in Asia Pacific".

Source: BBC