SEOUL — The South Korean military is poised to shoot down a North Korean rocket should it stray into South Korean territory during a launch planned for next month, a defense ministry official here in Seoul said March 26.

The response comes as Seoul’s intelligence authorities confirmed that the main body of a North Korean Unha-3 rocket was moved to a new missile site at Dongchang-ri in northwestern North Korea. Dongchang-ri, in North Pyeongan Province, is significantly larger than the one in Musudan-ri, North Hamgyeong Province, where North Korea test-fired the Taepodong-2 missile in 2009.

The launch angle will be the first to take a southern trajectory and marks the first time a rocket has been launched from this facility.

North Korea plans to fire the rocket to put a satellite into orbit between April 12 and 16 to mark the 100th anniversary of the birth of its founding leader Kim Il-sung.

However, the international community believes the rocket launch is a disguised test of a long-range ballistic missile that could deliver a nuclear warhead to targets in Alaska and Hawaii, as well as other Asia-Pacific nations, such as Australia and Indonesia.

“We’re preparing measures to track the missile’s trajectory and shoot it down if, by any chance, it deviates from the planned route and falls into our territory,” Col. Yoon Won-shik, vice spokesman for the Ministry of National Defense, told reporters.

“North Korea’s move is a grave provocation and defiance against the international community,” Yoon said. “Through the rocket launch, we believe, the North is aimed at improving and developing its long-range ballistic missile to deliver nuclear warheads.”

According to South Korean Navy officials, two destroyers, including a 7,600-ton Sejong the Great-class Aegis destroyer, are to be deployed in the West Sea to monitor the missile launch.

If parts of the three-stage North Korean rocket stray from their trajectory and violate South Korea’s territory, the destroyers will fire SM-2 ship-to-air missiles to take them down, a Navy spokesman said.

“The Army will also be ready to fire PAC-2 missiles to intercept parts of the rocket if they fly too close to the South’s territory,” Yoon said. In 2007, South Korea purchased 48 secondhand PAC-2 missile systems from Germany as part of efforts to establish a low-tier air and missile defense system in coordination with ship-based SM-2 missiles and Israel’s Super Green Pine early warning radars.

The North Korean launch site has created new problems for South Korean efforts to intercept and monitor ballistic missiles and rockets. The angle from which the rocket will be launched will make it more difficult to intercept by seaborne ballistic-missile defense systems, said Bruce Bechtol, author of the book, “Defiant Failed State: The North Korean Threat to International Security.”

The new site at Dongchang-ri “can potentially be set up more quickly and denial/deception procedures implemented more effectively than the site at Musudan,” he said. “This impacts on warning time for U.S./[Republic of Korea] policy makers.”

Bechtol said the most important aspect of this launch will not be the southern trajectory, but “seeing if this missile can actually make it through all three stages successfully of the launch cycle.” If successful, this will mean that North Korea will finally have the capability to strike U.S. territory.

U.S. President Barack Obama has renewed his warning against North Korea’s provocations.

“There will be no rewards for provocations. Those days are over,” Obama said March 26 in Seoul. “To the leaders of Pyongyang, I say, this is the choice before you. This is the decision that you must make.”

Obama is attending the two-day Nuclear Security Summit in Seoul. Chinese President Hu Jintao and other world leaders are gathered in South Korea to discuss ways of improving nuclear security and to hold bilateral summit talks on the sidelines. North Korea and Iran are expected to dominate the nuclear agenda at the summit.

After a meeting between Obama and Hu, senior White House aide Ben Rhodes said the Chinese leader indicated to his U.S. counterpart that he took the North Korean nuclear standoff very seriously and was registering his concern with Pyongyang.

“The two leaders agreed to coordinate closely in responding to this potential provocation and registering our serious concern to the North Koreans and, if necessary, consider what steps need to be taken following a potential satellite launch,” Rhodes said.

Wendell Minnick reported from Taipei.

Israel and the United States have agreed to postpone a major military defense exercise scheduled for spring, Israeli public radio reported Sunday, amid rising regional tension over Iran’s nuclear program.

The air-defense drill, named "Austere Challenge 12," is expected to be the largest exercise between the two allies, who regularly hold joint military maneuvers.

The Pentagon said it was scheduled for the spring, but now would take place in the second half of 2012.

Israeli media reports originally said it was cancelled due to budgetary constraints. But some pundits speculated that the real reason was fear of creating further friction with Iran, which is showing signs of deepening isolation over its refusal to halt nuclear activity.

A U.S. official denied that tensions with Iran were a factor and an Israeli security source cited logistical problems. Both sources spoke on condition of anonymity.

"It's for a host of reasons, mainly logistical, but not the reason you cited (tensions with Iran)," the Israeli source said.

Pentagon spokesman Navy Captain John Kirby played down the delay, saying it was not uncommon for routine exercises to be postponed.

"There were a variety of factors at play in this case, but in general, leaders from both sides believe that optimum participation by all units is best achieved later in the year," Kirby said.

Israel sees the makings of a mortal threat in Iran's uranium enrichment and missile projects, and the Jewish state's leaders have not ruled out the use of military force to stop it.

Iran says its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes.

Tensions between Washington and Tehran have risen in recent weeks after U.S. President Barack Obama signed a bill on New Year's Eve that, if fully implemented, would make it impossible for most countries to pay for Iranian oil.

Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil shipping lane, if sanctions prevent it from exporting oil. The United States has said it will not tolerate such a move.

General Martin Dempsey, the top U.S. military officer, is due to travel to Tel Aviv for talks later this week in which Iran is certain to be one of the topics of discussion. It will be Dempsey's first trip there since becoming chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in September.

In a November 30 interview with Reuters, Dempsey said he did not know whether Israel would alert the United States ahead of time if it decided to take unilateral military action against Iran. He also acknowledged differences in perspective between the United States and Israel over the best way to handle Iran and its nuclear program.

BEIJING - Japanese Foreign Minister Koichiro Gemba asked China's Premier Wen Jiabao to agree to set up a "crisis management mechanism" aiming to avoid conflict over disputed waters, reports said Nov. 23.

China and Japan have often had strained relations, particularly over claims to East China Sea gas fields and disputed islands known as the Senkaku in Japanese and the Diaoyu in Chinese.

Gemba - on a one-day visit to Beijing - also called for the resumption of negotiations towards a treaty on a joint gas development project in the East China Sea, Kyodo News agency reported, quoting the Japanese foreign ministry.

His talks with Wen were also to lay the ground for a visit by Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda to China later this year.

In his meeting with Gemba, Wen said Japan and China should work together to boost development in East Asia, the official Xinhua news agency said.

"The just-concluded East Asia Summit has demonstrated a strong trend of forging solidarity, development and cooperation within the region," Wen said, referring to the weekend meeting on the Indonesian island of Bali.

Gamba later met his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi, who told him Beijing would "seriously consider" further easing restrictions on food imports from Japan imposed after an earthquake and tsunami triggered the country's nuclear crisis in March, Japan's Kyodo news agency reported. Gamba was then due to return to Tokyo.

The crisis management mechanism has been described by Japanese media as a regular dialogue scheme that will involve the two countries' foreign and defense ministries, fisheries and energy agencies, and coastguards.

Japan has long expressed concern over China's growing assertiveness and widening naval reach in the Pacific and over what it calls the "opaqueness" of Beijing's military budget.

A major crisis erupted between the two countries in September 2010 when Japan arrested a Chinese trawler captain near the disputed islands. China issued protests and scrapped meetings and cultural events in a diplomatic offensive that continued after Japan freed the captain, while nationalist sentiment sparked demonstrations in both countries.

Japan, meanwhile, has bitterly complained that China may have started drilling for gas in an offshore energy field in the disputed waters.

BEIJING - China on Sept. 22 strongly condemned a $5.85 billion U.S. deal to upgrade Taiwan's fleet of F-16 fighter jets, summoned the US ambassador and warned the move would undermine warming military relations.

China, which claims Taiwan as part of its territory, urged the United States to cancel the deal and said it had jeopardized recent improvements in military ties between the two world powers and affected relations with Taiwan.

But analysts said the deal, which stopped short of selling new planes to Taiwan, would probably not be as damaging as an earlier arms package that led to a break in China-U.S. military exchanges in 2010.

"The Chinese military expresses great indignation and strong condemnation," the defense ministry said in a strongly worded statement announcing it had called in the acting U.S. military attaché for talks.

"U.S. actions ... have caused serious damage to Sino-U.S. military relations and have seriously undermined the good momentum of the peaceful development of cross-strait relations," the statement said.

Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Zhijun urged Washington to "immediately cancel the wrong decision" and summoned U.S. Ambassador Gary Locke to protest against the deal, which was branded a "huge mistake" by China's top newspaper.

"If American politicians feel that the United States can ... irresponsibly and randomly damage China's core interests without paying the price, this is a major and huge mistake," said the People's Daily, considered the mouthpiece of China's Communist Party.

But Jean-Pierre Cabestan, political science professor at Hong Kong Baptist University, said Beijing had learned lessons from the 2010 break-off in military ties and was unlikely to react as strongly this time.

"They are going to react, to get angry, and the military may take measures to better counter these retrofitted F-16s, but they will not break military ties with the United States like they did before," he told AFP.

"They're (China) in a new phase - more flexible and accommodating, and with the Taiwanese electoral factor, it reduces their room for maneuver a lot, and it will force them not to overreact on this."

Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou of the Beijing-friendly Kuomintang party will seek re-election in January, and Cabestan said China would be keen not to cause any upsets ahead of the polls.

Russell Leigh Moses, a Beijing-based political analyst, said China's reaction was an exercise in "how to avoid slamming the door while shouting."

"I think that Beijing's outrage has multiple audiences, in particular those at home on the mainland and in Taiwan," he said. "There are ways in which they could have said hardly anything, but the consensus clearly was - we'll go into the default mode of being pretty upset and angry, but not like it was a year ago."

Taiwan first lodged a request to buy 66 F-16 C/D fighters - which have better radar and more powerful weapons systems than its F-16 A/Bs - in 2007 in response to China's growing military muscle.

The deal to upgrade the existing fleet includes equipment, parts, training and logistical support.

The Taiwan defense ministry said it was "another signal of the solid foundation for mutual trust and the close security cooperation between Taiwan and the United States."

Observers and media in Taiwan said that although the deal may mean little in any war with China, it represented a valuable sign of U.S. commitment to help the island's defense.

"This is a U.S. compromise to satisfy some of Taiwan's defense needs and maintain friendly ties with Taiwan without touching China's bottom-line by selling new jets," said Kenneth Wang, a military expert at Taiwan's Tamkang University.

Washington recognizes Beijing rather than Taipei but remains a leading arms supplier to the island of 23 million inhabitants, providing a source of continued U.S.-China tension.

However, relations between the U.S. and Chinese militaries have improved over the past year. In July, U.S. Navy Adm. Mike Mullen became the first chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff since 2007 to visit China.

Ties between China and Taiwan have improved since Ma came to power in 2008, but Beijing has refused to renounce the use of force against the island, even though it has ruled itself for more than six decades since their split in 1949.

Source: Defense News

The Chinese aircraft carrier that began sea trials last week is by far the largest warship of any country in Asia and in certain realms could give China game-changing capabilities. However, the carrier cannot help China assert sovereignty over the South China Sea - its biggest maritime headache - and the ship could prove to be more of a diplomatic liability than a military asset.

At 300 meters long and displacing over 60,000 tons, the carrier is by far the largest warship of any navy in Asia. No other country in the region can operate fighter aircraft from a warship except Thailand, whose Chakri Narubet is less than a fifth the size. Once fully operational, the Chinese carrier should be able to sustain up to 40 Sukhoi 33-derived J-15 naval air-superiority fighters and up to 20 rotary aircraft, including Ka-28 anti-submarine helicopters.

On the surface, this capability would seem to decisively shift the balance of power in the South China Sea, where China has territorial disputes with Vietnam, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei. Currently, China claims its territorial waters skirt the Philippines' coast as far south as Brunei, on Borneo island, before looping north and hugging the Vietnamese coast back to southern China. This 80-year-old claim neatly encompasses the Spratly and Paracel island reefs, assumed to be rich in hydrocarbon resources by surrounding countries that have erected research installations on them.

With an operational carrier based at China's expanded naval facility at Sanya on Hainan Island, China could conceivably maintain local air superiority over any point in the disputed South China Sea - a precondition for decisive military or diplomatic efforts to enforce its maritime claim and force the withdrawal of rival commercial operations and installations from the islands.

This capability would also help China reduce other countries' enthusiasm for the frequent maritime spats that occur in these contested waters and the nationalist outpourings that follow. In the latest incident in mid-June, China's Foreign Ministry spokesman accused Vietnamese exploration vessels of conducting unlawful oil and gas surveys off the Spratly archipelago, harassing Chinese fishing vessels and "gravely violating China's sovereignty and maritime rights".

Despite Chinese defense officials claims that the new carrier is intended for scientific research and training, the ship clearly fulfills a strategic function. The official Xinhua news agency published a commentary shortly before the ship departed saying, "Building a strong navy that is commensurate with China's rising status is a necessary step, and an inevitable choice for the country to safeguard its increasingly globalized national interests."

However, even if it becomes operational, the carrier and its air groups will be hugely vulnerable and China is unlikely to risk using it in any confrontation with rivals in the South China Sea.

Without catapults or arrester wires, the carrier will not be able to operate any airborne early-warning aircraft needed to provide comprehensive radar coverage for fleets. This means the carrier will have limited area awareness, unable to see or respond to threats beyond the horizon of ship-based radar. Logistical constraints will also limit the time the carrier can spend at sea: the People's Liberation Army-Navy (PLA-N) possesses only five seaworthy replenishment ships, none of them over 22,000 tons.

The biggest liability, however, will be inadequate protection. China has two Type 52C destroyers with active phased array radar that enables them to track multiple incoming missiles and aircraft - with four more under construction. But integrating that radar with China's domestically developed HHQ-9 anti-air missiles so they can shoot down supersonic sea-skimming missiles will prove exceptionally challenging. Nor can the carrier rely on sub-surface protection. Without very-low frequency radio communication systems, China's long range patrol submarines would struggle to operate tactically in defense of a carrier group.

Defensive postures

But even without these deficiencies, China's southern neighbors will likely ensure that the South China Sea becomes too dangerous for China to risk sending its prized carrier into contested waters.

In the first week of June, an article in Vietnam's state newspaper, Nhan Dan, carried pictures of the world's fastest anti-ship missile, the Indo-Russian BrahMos, in a clear statement of procurement intentions and its navy's readiness to respond to incidents of Chinese aggression within waters it claims as its exclusive economic zone. With a speed of Mach 2.8, the missile is four times as fast as a US-made Tomahawk missile and would present a lethal threat to any vessel within its 300-kilometer range. (Even with exceptional anti-missile capabilities, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) navies would keep well out of range of this threat.)

BrahMos procurement requires joint Indian and Russian approval, and Vietnam is rapidly improving its relations with both nations. During a high profile defense cooperation visit to New Delhi by Vietnam's navy chief at the end of June, the Vietnamese government gave permission for Indian navy ships to drop anchor at Nha Trang, which has been off-limits to foreign navies since 2003.

The offer followed an announcement on June 6 by Lieutenant General Nguyen Chi Vinh that part of the strategic Cam Ranh Bay would be made available for technical and logistical support of foreign military ships. To ensure that China properly understood the significance of that offer, the announcement was followed-up on August 14 with an unprecedented visit by senior Vietnamese government officials to the American carrier, USS George Washington, as it traversed the South China Sea.

On July 2, Vietnam also took a decisive step forward in its long-heralded defense procurement deal with Russia. According to the Russian VNA newswire, Oleg Azizov, representative of the Russian state defense export company Rosoboronexport, confirmed Vietnam has signed a contract to buy six Kilo-636 MV diesel electric submarines for delivery in 2014.

The 2,300 ton boats are optimized for shallow water operations and are exceptionally quiet running. Without leaving port, these submarines would provide a powerful deterrent to China against sending the carrier far into the South China Sea in a possible confrontation situation. Malaysia already has good submarine capabilities, with two recently commissioned French-designed Scorpene class boats.

Both Indonesia and the Philippines could also quickly develop powerful deterrent capabilities, and at relatively little cost by deploying anti-ship missiles to key outposts. Indonesia has already held discussions with India to acquire the BrahMos missile. The Philippines could either purchase US missiles off-the-shelf, or negotiate purchase of Taiwan's new ram-jet Hsiung Feng III anti-ship missile, unveiled with exquisite timing last week at the Taipei Aerospace and Defense Technology Exhibition against a mural backdrop of a burning carrier.

The fact that the South China Sea will be an exceptionally dangerous environment for the carrier will present the Chinese government with an acute dilemma. The carrier is hugely popular in China, where it has been touted as a symbol of the country's ascent to great-power status. Ardent online fans have already christened the vessel Shi-Lang, after the 17th century Taiwan-conquering admiral. And the government has invested vast political and financial capital in the project, both in terms of the propaganda value of the images and the cost of naval fighters and training establishments.

But the one nautical environment where Chinese opinion is most anxious for an assertion of naval authority - the South China Sea - is the one place that Chinese admirals will almost certainly never risk launching the carrier. With this knowledge, the countries on the South China Sea's littoral have every reason to welcome the carrier program. Indeed it may even strengthen their claims, knowing that they can taunt China to send it out. In any looming confrontation, the Chinese leadership will suddenly need to explain why its totemic flagship is useless for asserting power in the country's own self-claimed territorial waters or risk seeing it reduced, almost immediately, to a flaming wreck.

Phil Radford is a freelance writer and specialist on naval strategy based in Sydney.

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